Game Mindset: Bad luck? Just grind longer

In games

In games, ultra-rare gear might have a 0.02% drop rate.

What does that mean? On average, you need to grind 5,000 times for one drop.

But “average” is just that: average. Some people get it in 500 runs, others take 10,000. This isn’t about skill, just pure probability. A bit luckier, a bit unluckier, both are normal.

Some players might complain about their bad luck, but they keep grinding anyway. They know if they keep at it, the drop will come eventually.

And players don’t just brute force it.

They find ways to improve their grinding efficiency. Killing 100 mobs per hour versus 200 per hour. Huge difference.

They equip gear that boosts drop rates, turning that 0.02% into 0.04%. Expected value doubled.

But it’s still a probability game. In the end, you still need luck.

Bad luck? Then grind longer, grind smarter.

No player quits farming gear because of “bad luck.” They put on their best drop-rate gear, grind efficiently, until the loot finally drops.

In reality

In real life, our tolerance for luck is laughably low.

Send 10 resumes with no response, and you feel unqualified. Get rejected twice asking someone out, and you feel unattractive. Fail at one startup, and you feel you’re not cut out for it.

But if the response rate for resumes is 2%, then 10 applications shouldn’t get any responses. You need 50 to “expect” 1 reply. 100 to “expect” 2.

This isn’t bad luck. This is insufficient sample size.

Most of the time, successful people aren’t luckier. They just tried more times. Submission rejected? Submit to more places. No one buying your product? Get more exposure. Date went nowhere? Meet more people.

Of course, like in games, you should also find ways to “equip drop-rate gear” to boost your conversion rate. Polish your resume, and that 2% becomes 5%. Same 100 applications now yields 5 responses instead of 2.

There’s another approach: increase your surface area for luck.

Don’t just apply for one type of job. Try several. Don’t just build on one platform. Experiment with a few. Don’t just make one product. Run multiple small experiments. Every additional thing you do opens another path for luck to find you.

Three paths you can walk simultaneously: increase attempts, improve probability, expand surface area.

But most people don’t even hit enough “attempts” before giving up.

Next time you feel unlucky, ask yourself: How many times have I tried? Is that enough? Am I wearing my drop-rate gear?

Bad luck? Just grind longer.

Player notes

Building apps taught me this lesson for real.

At first, I only looked at download numbers and view counts. Low numbers meant failure. Then I learned to look at the funnel, and I finally saw where the problems were.

The funnel goes like this: Impressions → Clicks → Downloads → Usage → Payment. Each layer loses a ton of people.

Say 10,000 people see your app. 1% click through to the details page, so 100 people. 30% of those download, so 30 people. 20% of those actually open and use it, so 6 people. 3% of those pay, so 0.18 people. Less than 1.

10,000 impressions, zero paying customers. That’s reality.

So the problem might be: not enough impressions (top of funnel too small), low click-through rate (title and thumbnail aren’t compelling), downloaded but not used (onboarding experience needs work), or low payment intent (not enough perceived value).

Now I don’t say “no one’s downloading my stuff.” I ask “which layer of the funnel has the problem?” Optimizing each layer can dramatically improve the final outcome.

But most of the time, the answer is simple: the top of the funnel isn’t big enough.

So keep grinding, keep getting exposure, keep getting more eyeballs.

Bad luck? First make sure you’ve ground enough times.

Leveling tips

□ Replace “failure” with “not yet.” A 0.02% drop rate item after 1,000 or even 10,000 runs is just “hasn’t dropped yet,” not “failure”
□ Track and analyze your funnel numbers. The data tells you which layer has the problem
□ Set a “minimum attempt threshold.” Before deciding something won’t work, commit to trying at least X times
□ Find your “drop-rate gear.” What boosts your conversion? A better resume? A more compelling headline? A more professional portfolio?
□ Focus on the base first. No matter how good your conversion rate, a small base won’t get you far. Sometimes the simplest solution is just getting more people to see your work